Most criminals are criminals not because they've performed a careful analysis of risk/benifits. It's usually because they're not right.

Ever heard of the maze test? They did a study. Let's say you take a person up for parole and you say "we'll let you out on Parrole, but you have to take this maze, and go from one end to the other with your pencil without ever lifting your pencil off the paper (backtracking is OK) or crossing lines". The ones that succeed are good canditates, because they have self control. The ones that fail, even knowing this, are the ones that will break parrole.

It's because they lack impulse control. And lack of impulse control, and forthought, is what makes most criminals. This is why most of the really bad ones get caught by routine traffic stops. Four warrents out for their arrest, yet they still go 85 in a 55 zone.